The most basic one being our insatiable appetite for modem speed. Of course, this desire for modem speed is feed by the browser frenzy. Just when it seems that we are forever locked at 28.8 kbps, along comes the modem gorillas with their own ideas as to how to satisfy our appetites. They know that if they offer something new, we will line up to buy it. 

 Now we have to sort out rival modem technologies. There are billions of dollars worth of new modem sales at stake here. The standards, of how we all are able to talk to one another if we happen to have modems by different manufacturers, be dammed. This little exercise is placing individual users back in the same place as we were before the Bell Labs or Hayes standards were introduced. 

 There are actually two technologies being pushed by the modem gorillas, ie., 3Com/U. S. Robotics, Rockwell, and Lucent. These are the manufacturers of the communications chip sets which go into all modems. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) communications committee decision on this standard is a long way off. This is, however, not stopping these heavy weights from attempting to sway the modem opinion by offering their version of what the standard could be. 3Com/U. S. Robotics is in one camp with Rockwell and Lucent in the other. And, there may be a few others who offer still additional technologies to muddy the water. 

 Remember that 3Com has just paid 6.6 billion dollars for U. S. Robotics. There are bucks at stake. 

 The technology and hardware each is pitching will not work with the other. Each side is working very hard at signing modem vendors and Internet Service Providers to work with them. A "Lan Times" article reported that more than 300 ISPs plus Hitachi, Cardinal Technologies, and Acer America were in the 3Com/USR camp, while more than 270 ISPs and nearly the remainder of the modem vendors were in the Rockwell/Lucent camp, namely Ascend, AST, Cisco, Compaq, Digital, Hayes, HP, Microcom, Motorola, Shiva, Toshiba, and of all people, 3Com. 

 USR is in the process of retrofitting its entire product line with support for its technology, x2. Rockwell and Lucent are offering the other technology called 56flex. Motorola, while basing its retail modems on the Rockwell/lucent chip sets, is in the process of developing its own 56 kbps technology. The key to all this is that the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), United States communications standards committee, will have its version of the 56 kbps standards by this year's end. The ITU is not expected to have its committee work done until mid 1998. Both the 56Flex and the Motorola technologies have not been delivered yet. 

 Users and network managers need to keep in mind that x2 modems will not work with 56Flex servers and vice versa. This is also the case with 56 kbps dial-up Internet users who dial into their ISPs who do not offer their specific 56 kbps technology. Also, in addition to the modem compatibilities, the ISP must have digital termination equipment at its site for a proper working environment. 

 There is still another glitch to overcome in the form of an Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rule on signal strength which limits telco networks to 53 kbps. In the light of this rule and its not being waived at this time, 56 kbps is not legally possible even if it is technically possible. And, to add to this confusion, Motorola has found that approximately only 20 percent of telephone lines are capable of 56 kbps data transmission while an equal percentage will never achieve such speed. The remainder can achieve somewhere in the 40 kbps to 50 kbps range. These problems are due to poor quality of most telco local loop structures. 

 All of these problems have not stopped the marketing and sales hype. Vendors are not admitting to any problem, but are offering the 56 kbps moon. They are saying either, "56 kbps is a symbolic representation rather than an actual performance rate", or they are blaming less performance on the network bandwidth. And the ISP territory battle is heating up as they either take one technology or the other. Some, are setting up facilities to handle both. This takes much hardware infrastructure by the ISP to do. Some are predicting that most ISPs will eventually support both technologies. "The ISPs will follow the users, not the other way around", states one industry analyst, Rob Enderle. In San Antonio, Texas Net has the x2 technology up and running, and told me that they would put the 56Flex technology up as soon as it is available. 

 Vendors who manufacture both client and central-site equipment have great concerns about this standards battle. From the list above, it would seem that most of the central-site (network) communications vendors have climbed into the Rockwell/Lucent camp. This is a major problem as USR has provided many of the client modems. Remember that the 56 kbps technologies both work at 56 kbps on the downlink and 28.8/33.6? kbps on the up link. The 56 Flex technology may have a higher rate up link in the neighborhood of up to 43 kbps. The 33.6 kbps standard is not finalized yet. It is being called the V.34+ protocol. There is not standard to make it the V.34bis standard yet. 

 One company, AetherWorks Corporation, is proposing a 43.2 kbps modem which works at that speed in both directions. This modem technology is called V.Mach and is being presented to the TIA as an upgrade to the 33.6 kbps standard. AetherWorks wants it to be a rich man's upgrade to 33.6 kbps. This technology does not require a digital connection at the central site. It will connect to any other analog modem and is supposed to accommodate slower modems with the backward compatibility of other standards. It is also claimed by the vendor that this technology is more stable over the telco local loop and will solve many of the 33.6 kbps connection problems. As can be imagined, there is skepticism about this technology. 

 The Electronics Industry Association (EIA) and the TIA working committee is working on the standard which will be called the 56K-bps Pulse Code Modulation standard. It will be asymmetric with a conventional V.34 modem, ie., doing 33.6 kbps up link and 56 kbps down link. This committee expects to be completed by the end of this year. Work by the international ITU is expected to start in March 1997. 

 And, if all the legal and technical obstacles are out of the way, most of us are using PCS which have built in bottle-necks, ie., the dreaded serial port (COM port). Serial ports are limited to 115.2 kbps data flow no matter what. This means that once the 56 kbps downlink is compressed 2 to 1 the serial port is full. 28.8 kbps modems can transmit at compression ratios of 4 to 1, or nearly 115.2 kbps now. 

 In Conclusion, it would seem that we need to wait for a while to see where the standard is going. There are a lot of legal and technical hurdles to overcome. As has been stated elsewhere, make sure you get a full price return rebate if the modem you select does not make the final standard. USR is offering upgrades for a price on its entire product line. Sportsers, for example bought after August 15, 1996 can be flash ROM upgraded for $60.00. Couriers, V.Everything, and Courier I-modems can be flash ROM upgraded for $95.00. 

 The 56Flex products will begin shipping in March 1997. 

 JOHN WOODY IS A TELECOMMUNICATIONS CONSULTANT SPECIALIZING IN SMALL BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS, NETWORKS, AND INTERNET BUSINESS TRAINING.